When can we forecast inflation?

This article reassesses recent work that has challenged the usefulness of inflation forecasts. The authors find that inflation forecasts were informative in 1977-84 and 1993-2000, but less informative in 1985-92. They also find that standard forecasting models, while generally poor at forecasting the magnitude of inflation, are good at forecasting the direction of change of inflation.Inflation (Finance) ; Phillips curve

Evolution of surname distribution under gender-equality measurements

We consider a model for the evolution of the surnames distribution under a gender-equality measurement presently discussed in the Spanish parliament (the children take the surname of the father or the mother according to alphabetical order). We quantify how this would bias the alphabetical distribution of surnames, and analyze its effect on the present distribution of the surnames in Spain

Hidden Orbital Order in URu2Si2URu_{2}Si_{2}

When matter is cooled from high temperatures, collective instabilities develop amongst its constituent particles that lead to new kinds of order. An anomaly in the specific heat is a classic signature of this phenomenon. Usually the associated order is easily identified, but sometimes its nature remains elusive. The heavy fermion metal $URu_2Si_2$ is one such example, where the order responsible for the sharp specific heat anomaly at $T_0=17 K$ has remained unidentified despite more than seventeen years of effort. In $URu_{2}Si_{2}$, the coexistence of large electron-electron repulsion and antiferromagnetic fluctuations in $URu_2Si_2$ leads to an almost incompressible heavy electron fluid, where anisotropically paired quasiparticle states are energetically favored. In this paper we use these insights to develop a detailed proposal for the hidden order in $URu_2Si_2$. We show that incommensurate orbital antiferromagnetism, associated with circulating currents between the uranium ions, can account for the local fields and entropy loss observed at the $17 K$ transition; furthermore we make detailed predictions for neutron scattering measurements

Mitochondrial Diagnostics: A Multiplexed Assay Platform for Comprehensive Assessment of Mitochondrial Energy Fluxes

Chronic metabolic diseases have been linked to molecular signatures of mitochondrial dysfunction. Nonetheless, molecular remodeling of the transcriptome, proteome, and/or metabolome does not necessarily translate to functional consequences that confer physiologic phenotypes. The work here aims to bridge the gap between molecular and functional phenomics by developing and validating a multiplexed assay platform for comprehensive assessment of mitochondrial energy transduction. The diagnostic power of the platform stems from a modified version of the creatine kinase energetic clamp technique, performed in parallel with multiplexed analyses of dehydrogenase activities and ATP synthesis rates. Together, these assays provide diagnostic coverage of the mitochondrial network at a level approaching that gained by molecular “-omics� technologies. Application of the platform to a comparison of skeletal muscle versus heart mitochondria reveals mechanistic insights into tissue-specific distinctions in energy transfer efficiency. This platform opens exciting opportunities to unravel the connection between mitochondrial bioenergetics and human disease

Methylomic markers of persistent childhood asthma: a longitudinal study of asthma-discordant monozygotic twins.

This is a freely-available open access publication. Please cite the published version which is available via the DOI link in this record.Asthma is the most common chronic inflammatory disorder in children. The aetiology of asthma pathology is complex and highly heterogeneous, involving the interplay between genetic and environmental risk factors that is hypothesized to involve epigenetic processes. Our aim was to explore whether methylomic variation in early childhood is associated with discordance for asthma symptoms within monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs recruited from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) longitudinal twin study. We also aimed to identify differences in DNA methylation that are associated with asthma that develops in childhood and persists into early adulthood as these may represent useful prognostic biomarkers. RESULTS: We examined genome-wide patterns of DNA methylation in buccal cell samples collected from 37 MZ twin pairs discordant for asthma at age 10. DNA methylation at individual CpG sites demonstrated significant variability within discordant MZ twin pairs with the top-ranked nominally significant differentially methylated position (DMP) located in the HGSNAT gene. We stratified our analysis by assessing DNA methylation differences in a sub-group of MZ twin pairs who remained persistently discordant for asthma at age 18. The top-ranked nominally significant DMP associated with persisting asthma is located in the vicinity of the HLX gene, which has been previously implicated in childhood asthma. CONCLUSIONS: We identified DNA methylation differences associated with childhood asthma in peripheral DNA samples from discordant MZ twin pairs. Our data suggest that differences in DNA methylation associated with childhood asthma which persists into early adulthood are distinct from those associated with asthma which remits.Medical Research Council (MRC)National Institute of Child Health and Development (NICHD)American Asthma FoundationMRC Centenary Awar

Investigation of Quantum Phase Transitions using Multi-target DMRG Methods

In this paper we examine how the predictions of conformal invariance can be widely exploited to overcome the difficulties of the density-matrix renormalization group near quantum critical points. The main idea is to match the set of low-lying energy levels of the lattice Hamiltonian, as a function of the system's size, with the spectrum expected for a given conformal field theory in two dimensions. As in previous studies this procedure requires an accurate targeting of various excited states. Here we discuss how this can be achieved within the DMRG algorithm by means of the recently proposed Thick-restart Lanczos method. As a nontrivial benchmark we use an anisotropic spin-1 Hamiltonian with special attention to the transitions from the Haldane phase. Nonetheless, we think that this procedure could be generally valid in the study of quantum critical phenomena.Comment: 14 pages, LaTeX2e (svjour class), 8 EPS figures. Same version as the published one, with new references and English corrections of the proofreade

De arrieros a mercaderes. Orígenes de los comerciantes de la región Tacna-Arica, 1776-1794

This article analyzes the effects of the Bourbon reforms in the province of Arica, in the Viceroyalty of Peru, and examines the economic context that they created and in which a few people engaged in transport activities managed to become small traders.<br><br>Este artículo analiza los efectos de las reformas borbónicas en el partido de Arica, en el Virreinato del Perú, y examina el contexto económico que generaron, a partir del cual algunas personas dedicadas al transporte lograron convertirse en pequeños comerciantes

Modelling the unfolding pathway of biomolecules: theoretical approach and experimental prospect

We analyse the unfolding pathway of biomolecules comprising several independent modules in pulling experiments. In a recently proposed model, a critical velocity $v_{c}$ has been predicted, such that for pulling speeds $v>v_{c}$ it is the module at the pulled end that opens first, whereas for $v<v_{c}$ it is the weakest. Here, we introduce a variant of the model that is closer to the experimental setup, and discuss the robustness of the emergence of the critical velocity and of its dependence on the model parameters. We also propose a possible experiment to test the theoretical predictions of the model, which seems feasible with state-of-art molecular engineering techniques.Comment: Accepted contribution for the Springer Book "Coupled Mathematical Models for Physical and Biological Nanoscale Systems and Their Applications" (proceedings of the BIRS CMM16 Workshop held in Banff, Canada, August 2016), 16 pages, 6 figure

Measuring childhood maltreatment to predict early-adult psychopathology: Comparison of prospective informant-reports and retrospective self-reports

Both prospective informant-reports and retrospective self-reports may be used to measure childhood maltreatment, though both methods entail potential limitations such as underestimation and memory biases. The validity and utility of standard measures of childhood maltreatment requires clarification in order to inform the design of future studies investigating the mental health consequences of maltreatment. The present study assessed agreement between prospective informant-reports and retrospective self-reports of childhood maltreatment, as well as the comparative utility of both reports for predicting a range of psychiatric problems at age 18. Data were obtained from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally-representative birth cohort of 2232 children followed to 18 years of age (with 93% retention). Childhood maltreatment was assessed in two ways: (i) prospective informant-reports from caregivers, researchers, and clinicians when children were aged 5, 7, 10 and 12; and (ii) retrospective self-reports of maltreatment experiences occurring up to age 12, obtained at age 18 using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. Participants were privately interviewed at age 18 concerning several psychiatric problems including depression, anxiety, self-injury, alcohol/cannabis dependence, and conduct disorder. There was only slight to fair agreement between prospective and retrospective reports of childhood maltreatment (all Kappa's ≤ 0.31). Both prospective and retrospective reports of maltreatment were associated with age-18 psychiatric problems, though the strongest associations were found when maltreatment was retrospectively self-reported. These findings indicate that prospective and retrospective reports of childhood maltreatment capture largely non-overlapping groups of individuals. Young adults who recall being maltreated have a particularly elevated risk for psychopathology